With the 2025 season on the horizon, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections provide a detailed look at how the divisional races and postseason picture could unfold. While no projection system is a perfect crystal ball, PECOTA’s data-driven simulations offer an informed glimpse into likely outcomes for each team. Let’s break down seven key takeaways from this year’s forecast.
1) Dodgers Stand Alone at the Top
The reigning World Series champions are in a class of their own. PECOTA projects the Dodgers to rack up 104 wins—12 more than the next-best team, the Braves (92). Their postseason odds exceed 99%, making them virtually a lock for October baseball. With stars like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and a rotation bolstered by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki, the Dodgers also hold a commanding 22% chance of repeating as champions, more than double any other club.
2) Yankees and Orioles Set for Another AL East Showdown
The AL East is once again projected to be the tightest race in baseball. The Yankees and Orioles, who battled for supremacy last season, are expected to go head-to-head again. PECOTA gives New York a razor-thin edge, forecasting a 90-72 record compared to Baltimore’s 89-73. If the projections hold, both clubs will reach the playoffs, with the Yankees securing a first-round bye while the Orioles fight through the Wild Card Series.
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3) Braves Lead a Three-Team Race in the NL East
One of the most competitive divisions in baseball, the NL East features three projected playoff teams: the Braves (92-70), Mets (89-73), and Phillies (88-74). Despite Philadelphia’s reigning division crown and New York’s blockbuster acquisition of Juan Soto, Atlanta is PECOTA’s pick to finish on top. With Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider returning from injury, the Braves are poised to reclaim the division.
4) Rangers Poised for a Postseason Return
After missing the playoffs in 2024, the 2023 World Series champion Rangers are projected to rebound in a big way. PECOTA forecasts Texas finishing with 89 wins, second-most in the AL. A formidable lineup led by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis García, combined with a rotation anchored by Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom, puts them atop a stacked AL West. Meanwhile, the Astros (87-75) and Mariners (86-76) are expected to claim Wild Card spots.
5) Cubs Overtake Brewers in the NL Central
Milwaukee has dominated the NL Central in recent years, but PECOTA sees the Cubs flipping the script. Chicago is projected to win the division with 91 victories—the third-highest total in baseball. Fueled by the addition of All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker and a deep pitching staff, the Cubs are also given an 8% chance to win the World Series, trailing only the Dodgers, Yankees, and Braves.
6) AL Central Sees a Shake-Up
The AL Central surprised many in 2024, sending three teams (Guardians, Royals, Tigers) to the postseason. However, PECOTA projects all three will miss out in 2025. Instead, the Twins (86-76) are forecasted to reclaim the division title, while the Royals (81-81), Guardians (80-82), and Tigers (80-82) hover around the .500 mark.
7) D-backs In, Padres Out
Despite their deep roster, the Padres (82-80) are projected to miss the playoffs, while the Diamondbacks (87-75) are expected to return to October baseball. Arizona’s rotation, headlined by Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes, along with an explosive lineup featuring Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, gives them the edge in the Wild Card race.
The 2025 season promises to be a thrilling one, with powerhouse teams poised to dominate and several tight division battles likely to come down to the wire. As always, baseball has a way of defying expectations, but these projections offer a compelling roadmap for the season ahead. Will the Dodgers live up to their superteam status? Can the Yankees and Orioles push each other to new heights? Will the Cubs complete their resurgence? Only time will tell.