November is coming in with a bang. It’s the best month of the college football season because of its unparalleled ability to separate the wheat from the chaff in the sport, to determine which teams are real contenders to compete for conference and national titles, and which ones are unable to turn up when the pressure becomes a little more real.
Week 10 doesn’t exactly give us a jam-packed slate of games, but think of it like a really fun UFC fight nit. There is a ton on the undercard — a bunch of games that should be close and will keep you flipping back and forth. There’s the co-main event that should be really good, a matchup between a pair of fun ranked team. But everything this week is going to revolve the heavyweight fight at the top of the card, which you can read about right, well, right now.
The Game Of The Year (Of The Week): No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Penn State (12:00 p.m. ET, Fox)
The Nittany Lion fan who co-writes this every week is, in the immortal words of that kid in Christmas Vacation, sh*tting bricks. Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State since that famous 2016 game where they won on a blocked field goal return for a touchdown, and since then, you can make the argument that no team (outside of Michigan the last few years) has played the Buckeyes as consistently well as James Franklin’s team. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and Ohio State is on a 7-game winning streak over their Big Ten foes.
Both teams have elite defenses — by SP+, the Buckeyes are No. 1 and the Nittany Lions are No. 3 in the country on that side of the football. They’re both rock solid and don’t really have a fatal flaw, although Penn State really does need to start turning its high pressure rate into sacks at some point. What this game is going to come down to, in all likelihood, is how each team overcomes potentially gigantic injuries to key parts of their offenses. For the Buckeyes, this involves their offensive line, as standout left tackle Josh Simmons is out for the year and his replacement, Zen Michalski, struggled against Nebraska before leaving with an injury that Ryan Day thinks will keep him out on Saturday. The reshuffling up front is going to be a major challenge, particularly against standout edge rusher Abdul Carter.
But Penn State might have a bigger issue on its hands with an injury to starting QB Drew Allar, an Ohio native who was a disaster in Columbus last year and looked like he was primed for a monster game against his childhood team this season. Allar appeared to hurt his knee against Wisconsin last week, and while he’s a game-time decision who reports indicate will play, his backup, Beau Pribula, was able to lead a comeback in Camp Randall while he was out. Pribula is a totally different QB — Allar is a pure pocket passer, Pribula is a dual-threat — and when he was in, the Nittany Lion rushing attack took off against the Badgers. He’s not on Allar’s level as a passer, though, and to beat the Buckeyes, you have to be able to throw the ball down the field.
The margins have been awfully tight in this game over the years, and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case again this time around. Will Day be able to get the sort of win over a top-5 team his critics think he can’t, or will Franklin be able to finally slay one of the Big Ten’s giants as he tries to secure the Nittany Lions’ spot as one of the nation’s elite?
Lock Into This One: No. 18 Pitt vs. No. 20 SMU (8:00 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
Big week for things in Pennsylvania, eh? Pitt is coming off of maybe the weirdest win of all time, a 41-13 drubbing of Syracuse where they were outgained, 327-217, but forced five interceptions and turned three of them into pick sixes. They keep finding ways to win, whether it’s behind talented young QB Eli Holstein, a physical running game led by Desmond Reid, a defense that is very good at generating havoc plays, or the top special teams unit in the country based on SP+.
SMU, however, will be their toughest test by some margin, especially because dynamic signal caller Kevin Jennings was cleared to play despite an injury. When he is in, the Mustangs love to put the ball in the air and generate big plays, and how they manage to do that against a talented and opportunistic Panther secondary might end up deciding a game that has serious aspirations at the top of the ACC, which I did not expect to say about the game between Pitt and SMU at the start of the year.
Under-The-Radar Banger: TCU vs. Baylor (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Is this game going to be good? Probably not. Does it have the potential to be a completely insane matchup of two teams smashed in the middle of the Big 12 that could really use a win? Absolutely. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is capable of absolutely lighting teams up. Baylor is capable of running all over you with one of their five dudes who have at least 100 rushing yards this year. The Horned Frogs aren’t great at stopping the run, the Bears could be better at stopping teams from passing. If you like points, watch this one.
Message Board Meltdown Game Of The Week: Duke vs. No. 5 Miami (12:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
Listen, Miami is going to win in all likelihood — they’re just way more talented than Duke, which has done an admirable job gutting out wins this year, in fairness. However, if Miami’s ACC title hopes take a big hit because they lose to Manny Diaz, we are going to see a gigantic meltdown out of Canes fans.
Who Won The Heisman Last Week?: Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn
Auburn beat Kentucky last week, 24-10. The Wildcats had 224 yards of total offense. Hunter, on his own, ran for 278 yards. It’s really hard to carry the ball 23 times and average 12.1 yards per carry, but Hunter did just that — plus he found the end zone twice, which is again more than Kentucky did.
Best Bet (5-4): Minnesota vs. Illinois (+3) (12:00 p.m. ET, FS1)
This line feels like an overreaction to Illinois getting outclassed by the best of the Big Ten while Minnesota has been beating a few mediocre Big Ten teams. The Illini getting points at home against a team that is a much more comfortable caliber of opponent should bring their offense back to life a bit, and I think their defense will look much faster and better against this Minnesota offense compared to Oregon. I like Illinois to win this on the field, but will also happily take three points.